Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

544
FXUS64 KFWD 090551
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms are expected on Wednesday. Some
  storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty
  winds, and heavy rain.

- Storm chances decrease Thursday and Friday before increasing
  again this weekend.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through
  the start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

A weak southwest-to-northeast oriented upper trough will be the
primary weather feature of note for the next few days as it works
its way slowly southeast through the region. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be the result again both
Wednesday and Thursday, with activity focused a little farther
south and east each day. An exception may be any storms which
originate in Oklahoma and move south in the north flow aloft,
which could affect northwest portions of the CWA before
dissipating. One such storm complex is ongoing and just grazing
our western-most counties, and another will be possible Wednesday
night.

Otherwise, convection will likely develop in the mid afternoon
hours, reach peak coverage and intensity 6 to 9 PM and dissipate
by midnight. There is no one particular surface focus for
convection, so activity will likely be disorganized and initiate
on remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday night`s storms. Weak
flow aloft will preclude any significant threat for severe
weather, though 2000-3000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE may allow
for 50+ MPH gusts in the stronger storms. The more prominent
hazard will likely be heavy rain and localized flooding.
Otherwise, temperatures should be near to slightly below normal
for the next week.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

By Friday, the shortwave and associated convection will be mainly
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, though a lingering
weakness aloft may still generate a few isolated afternoon
thunderstorms. A mid latitude trough will then sweep through the
Plains over the weekend, sending a cold front into the Red River
region. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
southward push of the front, which would have an impact on weekend
temperatures. As it stands now, showers and storms which will
likely develop along and ahead of the front (and the associated
cloud cover) would keep temperatures at least a couple degrees
below normal, even if the front stays north of the Red River. By
Monday, the weakness aloft will have shifted into West Texas while
a mid/upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley builds in from the
east. This would shift rain chances to areas mainly near and west
of I-35, while returning temperatures closer to normal values for
mid July.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Convection has all but dissipated with the loss of surface
instability, with the exception of a north flow aloft storm
complex over the Big Country, and a few pop-up showers in the
Metroplex. Have added a VCSH for the showers but the Big Country
storms will stay well west of all TAF sites. A swath of MVFR
ceilings may affect KACT around 12Z, which has been included in a
TEMPO group, but these cigs should stay southeast of the
Metroplex. Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening, but coverage is expected to be lower than
Tuesday evening`s convection, and will likely stick with VCSH.
Otherwise, VFR and south winds of 10-20kt during the day and 5-10
kt at night are expected through Wednesday night.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  77  94  76 /   5  10   0   0   5
Waco                73  91  73  90  73 /  10  10   0   5   0
Paris               73  94  75  94  74 /   5  10   0   0   5
Denton              73  96  75  94  75 /   5   5   0   0   5
McKinney            75  95  76  94  75 /   5  10   0   0   5
Dallas              76  96  77  95  76 /   5  10   0   0   5
Terrell             73  94  74  94  74 /   5  20   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  94  75  94  75 /  10  20   0   5   0
Temple              73  92  72  91  73 /  10  10   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       73  95  74  94  73 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$